If you happened to venture outside on Monday you were treated to near 70 degrees temperatures and some bright sun – certainly not typical for late November.  Runners were in short and t-shirts and Washington street restaurant patrons nestled in outside seating.  Cut to Thursday morning.  Cloudy, 35 degrees with a heavy chance of scarf/gloves combinations – brrrrrrr.  As they say in Winterfell (Game of Thrones), WINTER IS COMING! 

In addition to frequenting local bars, this polar bear is quite fittingly a winter weather fanatic.  So who better to give you a glimpse of the winter to come than you friendly arctic expert…

2010-2011 Winter at a Glance

Last winter was certainly one to remember.  The 62 inches of snow recorded came close to the all time NYC record (75 inches), but January’s 36 inches set a record for the all time snowiest January ever.  Most of the snowfall was due to super storms that barreled up the east coast leaving more than a foot of snow on several occasions – most memorably the December 26^th storm and January blizzard.  Good news for Hobokenites – this winter won’t likely be as bad as last year.  Bad news – we could still get some bad storms.

The Major Players

We luck out this year as Chicago and the northern Midwest will take the brunt of Father Winter’s best combo punch of super cold temperatures and frequent storms, but we’re not totally in the clear.  This winter, three major climatic players enter the fray:

La Nina

•  La Nina plagued us last winter, but had fizzled out in the summer.   All was well, but alas this moody girl has reemerged as winter sets to begin.
• La Nina is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Nina, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns
• Rare to have La Nina occur in consecutive winters and it has only happened four times since 1950.
• Wikipedia Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_nina.

North Atlantic Oscillation

• Equally, if not more important than La Nina
• NAO for short has been extreme the past two winters and has overwhelmed other influences (a strong La Nina last winter and a strong El Nino the previous one) and helped lead to wild snowstorms and widespread below-average temperatures.
• Wikipedia Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Oscillation.

Arctic Oscillation

• The wild card in all this is Arctic Oscillation which is a long lasting (weeks) plunge of colder than average air from Canada that can not only drop temperatures, but also amplify the effects of La Nina and lead to stormier than average conditions.
• Wikipedia Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation.

What to Expect?

Although most weather models forecast a slightly colder winter with the average amount of storms for the Northeast, combination of La Nina, NAO & Arctic Oscillation is dangerous and hard to predict. Depending on which of the three forces has the most influence we could be the in the sweet spot for another few winter whoppers.  Regardless, it will be a bit chilly this winter.

Official Polar Bear Prediction: Colder than average temperatures, 2-3 major storms (6 or more inches), 3-4 minor storms (less than 6 inches) and one freak storm (ice, snow, sleet, wind, cold, power outages, etc).

How to Prepare?

We all know winter can be a pain in Hoboken for parking and getting around so a few things to plan for in advance:

• Snow shovel to dig out your car and/or walkway (don’t be that person who doesn’t shovel their walkway!).
• Rock salt or calcium chloride to prevent freezing walkways. Calcium chloride is more expensive but less taxing on concrete on hallway carpets.
• A good pair of waterproof snow boots (Ugg boots don’t count).
• Deicer, antifreeze, scraper for your car.
• Flashlights, candles, extra batteries in case you lose power.
• Good old fashion winter hat, scarf and gloves.

Hobokenites – How do you prepare/survive winter in the Mile Square? Share your thought in the comments below. This is my plan…

- The Drunken Polar Bear